Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, UA 2427 at 09:23, with a 23% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 2427 United Flight history →	ORD 09:23	EUG 11:58	23%	5%	0.7%	86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Eugene on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Eugene is 2 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ORD 06:00 → DEN 07:41UA 2806	3h 34m Denver	DEN 11:15 → EUG 12:57UA 318	8h 57m	100%	80%
Delta Details →	ORD 06:55 → SEA 09:27DL 2041	2h 03m Seattle	SEA 11:30 → EUG 12:58DL 4149 · flown by SkyWest	8h 03m	98%	78%
United Details →	ORD 14:33 → DEN 16:30UA 2803	3h 05m Denver	DEN 19:35 → EUG 21:21UA 1303	8h 48m	92%	70%
United Details →	ORD 10:25 → SFO 13:14UA 543	3h 21m San Francisco	SFO 16:35 → EUG 18:17UA 502	9h 52m	94%	69%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	ORD 12:50 → SFO 15:29UA 1097	1h 06m San Francisco	SFO 16:35 → EUG 18:17UA 502	7h 27m	67%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON