Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 19 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 1027 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–43%.

Safest bet that day UA 1027 ORD 06:05 → EWR 09:12 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3253 ORD 17:36 → EWR 21:00 · 43% chance 15+ min late · usually 47% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1027 United	ORD 06:05	EWR 09:12	11%	4%	1.2%	no record
AA 699 American	ORD 06:31	EWR 09:55	11%	3%	2.0%	no record
UA 2759 United Flight history →	ORD 04:49	EWR 07:45	13%	4%	1.3%	47%
UA 1273 United	ORD 07:44	EWR 10:51	14%	6%	1.3%	no record
UA 3773 United	ORD 08:12	EWR 11:04	18%	6%	1.3%	no record
UA 2238 United	ORD 09:18	EWR 12:30	19%	8%	1.3%	no record
UA 1856 United Flight history →	ORD 10:51	EWR 14:17	20%	11%	1.4%	80%
UA 606 United Flight history →	ORD 12:11	EWR 15:39	23%	12%	1.1%	78%
UA 1209 United Flight history →	ORD 21:30	EWR 00:53	24%	9%	1.0%	68%
UA 759 United Flight history →	ORD 20:07	EWR 23:39	24%	10%	1.1%	65%
AA 2416 American	ORD 10:11	EWR 13:35	26%	9%	2.4%	no record
AA 2549 American Flight history →	ORD 20:09	EWR 23:30	33%	12%	1.6%	45%
UA 1630 United Flight history →	ORD 17:21	EWR 20:39	34%	13%	1.0%	70%
UA 2790 United	ORD 18:13	EWR 21:31	34%	12%	1.0%	no record
UA 249 United	ORD 16:14	EWR 19:31	35%	12%	1.0%	no record
UA 8160 United	ORD 14:05	EWR 17:21	35%	17%	1.0%	no record
UA 1236 United	ORD 15:17	EWR 18:29	36%	15%	1.0%	no record
AA 1936 American Flight history →	ORD 13:10	EWR 16:30	41%	14%	1.8%	65%
AA 3253 American Flight history →	ORD 17:36	EWR 21:00	43%	15%	1.8%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON