Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 67% chance of reaching Key West on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 752 United	ORD 11:10	EYW 15:31	28%	8%	2.0%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Key West on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Key West is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ORD 11:16 → ATL 14:21DL 1147	3h 32m Atlanta	ATL 17:53 → EYW 19:51DL 2815	7h 35m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29DL 1264	2h 32m Atlanta	ATL 11:01 → EYW 13:00DL 1472	6h 30m	98%	75%
American Details →	ORD 05:07 → CLT 08:10AA 2842	2h 43m Charlotte	CLT 10:53 → EYW 13:10AA 1816	7h 03m	97%	73%
American Details →	ORD 05:59 → MIA 10:19AA 2452	2h 06m Miami	MIA 12:25 → EYW 13:30AA 3577 · flown by Envoy	6h 31m	100%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON