Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 1421 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–36%.

Safest bet that day UA 1421 ORD 07:00 → FLL 11:13 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest B6 864 ORD 14:35 → FLL 18:49 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1421 United Flight history →	ORD 07:00	FLL 11:13	17%	4%	2.0%	91%
AA 1424 American Flight history →	ORD 06:50	FLL 11:09	21%	5%	2.8%	77%
F9 2205 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 08:05	FLL 12:22	29%	9%	7.9%	68%
B6 664 JetBlue Flight history →	ORD 07:00	FLL 11:14	29%	8%	3.9%	89%worse than usual
UA 279 United Flight history →	ORD 11:00	FLL 15:14	31%	8%	1.4%	76%
UA 1294 United	ORD 12:39	FLL 16:45	33%	11%	1.6%	no record
UA 463 United	ORD 17:59	FLL 22:04	35%	12%	1.4%	no record
AA 2881 American Flight history →	ORD 17:00	FLL 21:17	36%	11%	1.8%	62%
B6 864 JetBlue Flight history →	ORD 14:35	FLL 18:49	44%	15%	3.0%	67%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON