Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 19–29% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 4991 ORD 09:57 → FSD 11:50 · 19% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 5359 ORD 16:40 → FSD 18:24 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OO 4991 SkyWest	ORD 09:57	FSD 11:50	19%	7%	1.0%	no record
UA 1842 United Flight history →	ORD 21:30	FSD 23:31	22%	9%	0.7%	60%
AA 4958 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 22:31	FSD 00:14	25%	10%	1.1%	50%
OO 4992 SkyWest	ORD 16:34	FSD 18:25	26%	13%	1.1%	no record
OO 5645 SkyWest	ORD 13:16	FSD 15:00	26%	11%	0.9%	no record
OO 5359 SkyWest	ORD 16:40	FSD 18:24	29%	13%	1.0%	no record
UA 4443 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 12:40	FSD 14:32	13%	9%	1.4%	87%
UA 4462 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 08:40	FSD 10:41	17%	4%	0.0%	83%
UA 4404 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 16:00	FSD 17:53	38%	20%	5.4%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON