Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: OO 5784 at 06:11 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–33%.

Safest bet that day OO 5784 ORD 06:11 → GRR 08:00 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3177 ORD 20:58 → GRR 23:00 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 5784 SkyWest	ORD 06:11	GRR 08:00	13%	3%	1.1%	no record
MQ 3455 Envoy	ORD 13:38	GRR 15:43	14%	4%	1.3%	no record
UA 1297 United Flight history →	ORD 10:37	GRR 12:50	14%	5%	0.7%	89%
AA 6365 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 07:16	GRR 09:25	15%	3%	1.2%	50%
YX 4780 Republic	ORD 12:06	GRR 14:22	15%	4%	1.2%	no record
YX 3601 Republic	ORD 20:02	GRR 22:17	15%	5%	1.2%	no record
AA 4729 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 17:10	GRR 19:20	17%	6%	1.5%	62%
AA 3793 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 22:27	GRR 00:24	19%	4%	1.9%	68%
UA 2751 United	ORD 12:49	GRR 14:56	20%	7%	0.7%	no record
OO 5568 SkyWest	ORD 09:42	GRR 11:44	20%	4%	1.2%	no record
OO 5567 SkyWest	ORD 15:06	GRR 17:13	23%	6%	1.1%	no record
UA 1819 United Flight history →	ORD 22:04	GRR 00:00	26%	7%	0.6%	68%
UA 5250 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 16:36	GRR 18:38	28%	7%	1.4%	58%
OO 5656 SkyWest	ORD 18:26	GRR 20:28	29%	6%	1.4%	no record
AA 3177 American	ORD 20:58	GRR 23:00	33%	8%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON