Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: YX 4491 at 10:38 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–19%.

Safest bet that day YX 4491 ORD 10:38 → GSO 13:47 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 4118 ORD 15:40 → GSO 18:43 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 4491 Republic	ORD 10:38	GSO 13:47	7%	3%	1.1%	no record
AA 3648 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 20:03	GSO 22:58	18%	4%	1.0%	78%
AA 4118 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 15:40	GSO 18:43	19%	4%	1.3%	92%worse than usual
UA 4619 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 13:55	GSO 16:57	31%	17%	2.7%	69%
UA 4553 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 18:15	GSO 21:23	41%	20%	4.2%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON