Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 4160 at 08:14 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 4160 ORD 08:14 → GSP 11:13 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest UA 636 ORD 18:13 → GSP 21:03 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4160 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 08:14	GSP 11:13	10%	2%	1.1%	100%worse than usual
MQ 4002 Envoy	ORD 09:54	GSP 12:50	14%	3%	1.1%	no record
MQ 3668 Envoy	ORD 19:03	GSP 22:03	16%	6%	1.5%	no record
UA 5403 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 13:55	GSP 17:00	18%	8%	0.9%	77%
AA 4145 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 15:10	GSP 18:02	20%	5%	1.0%	66%
UA 636 United	ORD 18:13	GSP 21:03	30%	8%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON