tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via LAX, leaving 09:29, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Honolulu on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 60% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 219 United Flight history → ORD 10:16 HNL 13:59 16% 6% 0.6% 79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 5 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ORD 06:59 → DEN 08:49UA 1217 3h 11m Denver DEN 12:00 → HNL 15:13UA 384 13h 14m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → ORD 06:59 → LAX 09:32UA 2361 3h 43m Los Angeles LAX 13:15 → HNL 16:17UA 1224 14h 18m 100% 81%
UnitedDetails → ORD 12:51 → SFO 15:31UA 1097 3h 29m San Francisco SFO 19:00 → HNL 21:43UA 638 13h 52m 97% 81%
DeltaDetails → ORD 09:29 → LAX 11:43DL 1556 2h 12m Los Angeles LAX 13:55 → HNL 16:43DL 465 12h 14m 96% 79%
DeltaDetails → ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29DL 1264 1h 21m Atlanta ATL 09:50 → HNL 13:20DL 837 12h 50m 95% 79%
UnitedDetails → ORD 10:52 → SFO 13:40UA 543 3h 23m San Francisco SFO 17:03 → HNL 19:44UA 1509 13h 52m 94% 78%
UnitedDetails → ORD 07:59 → SFO 10:34UA 1116 3h 41m San Francisco SFO 14:15 → HNL 16:29UA 300 13h 30m 99% 75%
DeltaDetails → ORD 07:45 → SLC 10:15DL 2231 1h 30m Salt Lake City SLC 11:45 → HNL 14:19DL 316 11h 34m 92% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → ORD 13:00 → SEA 15:44DL 1564 46m Seattle SEA 16:30 → HNL 19:36DL 419 11h 36m 60% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON