Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: American via DFW, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Houston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 61% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	ORD 05:00 → DFW 07:30AA 760	1h 32m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:02 → HOU 10:31AA 9754	5h 31m	96%	78%
Delta Details →	ORD 13:39 → ATL 16:49DL 2894	3h 56m Atlanta	ATL 20:45 → HOU 21:51DL 2051	8h 12m	98%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	ORD 11:16 → ATL 14:21DL 1147	51m Atlanta	ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381	5h 06m	75%	59%
American Details →	ORD 15:02 → DFW 17:38AA 2429	59m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:37 → HOU 19:58AA 3391 · flown by Envoy	4h 56m	61%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON