Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 11–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 3812 ORD 08:10 → HPN 11:29 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest AA 4200 ORD 12:41 → HPN 15:59 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3812 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 08:10	HPN 11:29	11%	2%	1.3%	83%
AA 3752 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 19:37	HPN 22:59	16%	5%	1.2%	78%
AA 3499 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 18:29	HPN 21:57	17%	5%	1.3%	75%
AA 4112 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 14:05	HPN 17:25	18%	4%	1.6%	74%
AA 4200 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 12:41	HPN 15:59	21%	4%	1.9%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON