Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 2277 at 08:43 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–25%.

Safest bet that day UA 2277 ORD 08:43 → IAD 11:55 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest UA 304 ORD 19:48 → IAD 22:33 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2277 United Flight history →	ORD 08:43	IAD 11:55	9%	3%	0.6%	92%
UA 1486 United	ORD 11:06	IAD 14:05	16%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 1128 United	ORD 13:05	IAD 16:07	18%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 587 United Flight history →	ORD 14:51	IAD 17:49	18%	6%	0.6%	73%
UA 1922 United	ORD 22:06	IAD 00:47	23%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 2202 United Flight history →	ORD 18:12	IAD 21:22	25%	7%	0.6%	57%
UA 304 United	ORD 19:48	IAD 22:33	25%	6%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON