Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 19 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 1172 at 05:31 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–35%.

Safest bet that day UA 1172 ORD 05:31 → IAH 08:14 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2243 ORD 15:22 → IAH 18:09 · 38% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1172 United	ORD 05:31	IAH 08:14	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2228 United	ORD 06:30	IAH 09:19	12%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 1231 United Flight history →	ORD 07:35	IAH 10:36	12%	4%	0.6%	91%
UA 535 United Flight history →	ORD 08:51	IAH 11:51	16%	5%	0.6%	80%
F9 3135 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 07:37	IAH 10:41	17%	7%	1.2%	78%
AA 2504 American Flight history →	ORD 06:53	IAH 09:46	17%	5%	0.7%	75%
UA 1448 United Flight history →	ORD 12:40	IAH 15:39	19%	7%	0.7%	89%
UA 2767 United	ORD 10:44	IAH 13:33	20%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 2062 United Flight history →	ORD 14:24	IAH 17:16	23%	7%	0.6%	76%
UA 714 United Flight history →	ORD 16:05	IAH 19:10	23%	9%	0.6%	74%
UA 2665 United Flight history →	ORD 21:40	IAH 00:34	24%	7%	0.6%	76%
UA 2813 United Flight history →	ORD 20:02	IAH 22:59	26%	9%	0.6%	56%
AA 3322 American Flight history →	ORD 10:30	IAH 13:24	27%	7%	0.8%	86%worse than usual
UA 1921 United	ORD 18:07	IAH 20:51	28%	10%	0.6%	no record
AA 2302 American	ORD 13:19	IAH 16:13	33%	10%	0.8%	no record
AA 1496 American	ORD 17:01	IAH 19:52	34%	11%	0.8%	no record
AA 3144 American Flight history →	ORD 21:07	IAH 23:51	35%	11%	0.9%	53%
UA 2788 United	ORD 18:52	IAH 21:26	35%	9%	0.6%	no record
AA 2243 American	ORD 15:22	IAH 18:09	38%	10%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON