Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 4809 at 08:52 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–33%.

Safest bet that day UA 4809 ORD 08:52 → ICT 11:12 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest OO 5001 ORD 15:39 → ICT 17:47 · 34% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 4809 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 08:52	ICT 11:12	18%	6%	0.9%	77%
OO 4999 SkyWest	ORD 10:18	ICT 12:24	22%	7%	1.0%	no record
G7 4577 GoJet	ORD 13:00	ICT 15:04	23%	7%	1.9%	no record
UA 424 United	ORD 21:39	ICT 23:37	31%	11%	1.7%	no record
G7 4553 GoJet	ORD 16:36	ICT 18:33	32%	9%	3.0%	no record
MQ 3538 Envoy	ORD 20:14	ICT 22:09	33%	8%	2.1%	no record
OO 5001 SkyWest	ORD 15:39	ICT 17:47	34%	13%	2.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON