Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:45, is the safest bet: 69% chance of reaching Idaho Falls on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 6239 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 11:02	IDA 13:42	21%	9%	0.7%	37%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Idaho Falls on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Idaho Falls is 1 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ORD 05:00 → DEN 06:42UA 2666	1h 23m Denver	DEN 08:05 → IDA 09:50UA 5374 · flown by SkyWest	5h 50m	99%	88%
United Details →	ORD 06:59 → DEN 08:49UA 1217	2h 59m Denver	DEN 11:48 → IDA 13:29UA 8183	7h 30m	98%	85%
American Details →	ORD 05:00 → DFW 07:30AA 760	2h 22m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:52 → IDA 11:59AA 6468 · flown by SkyWest	7h 59m	98%	79%
Alaska Details →	ORD 08:02 → SEA 10:37AS 587	2h 12m Seattle	SEA 12:49 → IDA 15:43AS 3026 · flown by SkyWest	8h 41m	92%	74%
Alaska Details →	ORD 15:43 → SEA 18:22AS 407	1h 44m Seattle	SEA 20:06 → IDA 22:59AS 3422 · flown by SkyWest	8h 16m	88%	68%
American Details →	ORD 15:50 → DFW 18:27AA 2531	2h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:30 → IDA 22:38AA 6467 · flown by SkyWest	7h 48m	86%	58%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	ORD 07:45 → SLC 10:15DL 2231	48m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:03 → IDA 12:11DL 3765 · flown by SkyWest	5h 26m	74%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON