Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: YX 4547 at 06:53 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–31%.

Safest bet that day YX 4547 ORD 06:53 → IND 09:09 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 5316 ORD 15:58 → IND 18:03 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4547 Republic	ORD 06:53	IND 09:09	7%	2%	0.8%	no record
YX 3491 Republic	ORD 08:51	IND 11:09	10%	2%	0.9%	no record
AA 4713 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 11:53	IND 14:09	12%	3%	1.0%	87%
AA 3907 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 08:25	IND 10:33	15%	2%	0.8%	91%
UA 3707 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 19:45	IND 22:05	16%	5%	0.9%	76%
UA 3628 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 17:59	IND 20:16	17%	6%	1.0%	76%
AA 4740 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 20:46	IND 22:58	18%	4%	0.9%	66%
UA 473 United	ORD 10:37	IND 12:47	18%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 625 American	ORD 10:08	IND 12:27	18%	6%	1.3%	no record
OO 5582 SkyWest	ORD 07:07	IND 08:48	24%	5%	1.2%	no record
UA 1718 United	ORD 14:30	IND 16:39	25%	9%	0.8%	no record
G7 4433 GoJet	ORD 13:08	IND 15:23	25%	5%	1.4%	no record
OO 4915 SkyWest	ORD 13:45	IND 15:57	26%	8%	1.1%	no record
OO 5705 SkyWest	ORD 21:23	IND 23:32	30%	7%	1.1%	no record
AA 2418 American	ORD 17:04	IND 19:23	31%	10%	1.2%	no record
OO 5316 SkyWest	ORD 15:58	IND 18:03	33%	9%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON