Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: OO 5604 at 07:52 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–31%.

Safest bet that day OO 5604 ORD 07:52 → JAX 11:32 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3173 ORD 19:07 → JAX 22:48 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 5604 SkyWest	ORD 07:52	JAX 11:32	14%	5%	1.1%	no record
UA 8113 United	ORD 10:28	JAX 13:57	19%	5%	0.9%	no record
AA 3486 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 14:27	JAX 17:57	24%	5%	1.2%	80%
OO 5632 SkyWest	ORD 18:57	JAX 22:31	26%	9%	1.5%	no record
UA 1284 United	ORD 15:52	JAX 19:16	28%	9%	0.8%	no record
AA 3173 American	ORD 19:07	JAX 22:48	31%	10%	1.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON