Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 574 at 07:11 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 37–47%.

Safest bet that day UA 574 ORD 07:11 → LAS 09:19 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest AA 3292 ORD 17:30 → LAS 19:28 · 47% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 574 United Flight history →	ORD 07:11	LAS 09:19	11%	2%	0.6%	97%
AA 2169 American	ORD 06:52	LAS 08:58	20%	3%	1.0%	no record
UA 1803 United	ORD 11:07	LAS 13:05	21%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 2811 United	ORD 09:44	LAS 11:28	25%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 704 United	ORD 13:40	LAS 15:36	33%	7%	0.7%	no record
F9 2145 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 00:09	LAS 02:01	34%	6%	2.1%	63%
AA 1497 American	ORD 10:08	LAS 12:12	36%	6%	1.0%	no record
UA 1875 United Flight history →	ORD 15:47	LAS 17:51	37%	12%	0.8%	75%worse than usual
UA 777 United Flight history →	ORD 20:24	LAS 22:18	37%	9%	0.7%	76%worse than usual
UA 365 United	ORD 16:38	LAS 18:30	41%	12%	0.8%	no record
UA 1703 United	ORD 18:43	LAS 20:33	41%	11%	0.7%	no record
AA 1475 American	ORD 13:47	LAS 15:54	44%	9%	1.6%	no record
AA 3323 American Flight history →	ORD 20:58	LAS 22:55	47%	12%	1.0%	58%
AA 3292 American Flight history →	ORD 17:30	LAS 19:28	47%	19%	1.9%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON