Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 23 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 2373 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–35%.

Safest bet that day UA 2373 ORD 06:00 → LAX 08:27 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 3063 ORD 19:11 → LAX 21:33 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2373 United Flight history →	ORD 06:00	LAX 08:27	15%	3%	0.6%	89%
UA 2361 United Flight history →	ORD 06:59	LAX 09:32	15%	3%	0.6%	90%
AA 607 American Flight history →	ORD 06:00	LAX 08:20	16%	3%	0.8%	88%
AA 1009 American	ORD 06:57	LAX 09:28	18%	4%	0.8%	no record
UA 1363 United Flight history →	ORD 13:00	LAX 15:34	22%	6%	0.6%	83%
UA 2170 United	ORD 10:42	LAX 13:10	22%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 2814 United Flight history →	ORD 08:48	LAX 11:26	22%	4%	0.6%	82%
DL 1556 Delta Flight history →	ORD 09:28	LAX 11:42	22%	4%	0.4%	80%
UA 374 United Flight history →	ORD 14:30	LAX 17:05	24%	7%	0.6%	80%
UA 576 United Flight history →	ORD 15:47	LAX 18:20	24%	7%	0.6%	76%
DL 1775 Delta	ORD 17:40	LAX 19:58	25%	7%	0.4%	no record
AA 1979 American Flight history →	ORD 09:03	LAX 11:24	27%	5%	0.8%	74%
UA 542 United	ORD 15:17	LAX 17:39	27%	7%	0.6%	no record
AA 2903 American	ORD 13:50	LAX 16:18	27%	7%	0.8%	no record
AA 2012 American Flight history →	ORD 08:10	LAX 10:35	28%	5%	0.8%	70%
UA 2499 United Flight history →	ORD 20:18	LAX 22:53	28%	8%	0.6%	58%
AA 3008 American Flight history →	ORD 12:07	LAX 14:32	30%	6%	0.8%	79%
UA 1967 United Flight history →	ORD 20:18	LAX 22:25	30%	7%	0.6%	69%
UA 2494 United	ORD 16:54	LAX 19:19	30%	8%	0.6%	no record
AA 529 American Flight history →	ORD 15:21	LAX 17:43	34%	9%	0.8%	59%
AA 2364 American Flight history →	ORD 19:08	LAX 21:33	35%	8%	0.8%	59%
AA 1114 American	ORD 21:13	LAX 23:28	35%	7%	0.7%	no record
AA 3063 American Flight history →	ORD 19:11	LAX 21:33	35%	8%	0.8%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON