Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 25 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 1657 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–32%.

Safest bet that day UA 1657 ORD 07:00 → LGA 10:17 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest AA 673 ORD 16:40 → LGA 20:07 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 47% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1657 United Flight history →	ORD 07:00	LGA 10:17	8%	3%	1.3%	82%
DL 2633 Delta Flight history →	ORD 07:00	LGA 10:14	9%	2%	1.6%	77%
UA 2092 United Flight history →	ORD 07:59	LGA 11:16	9%	4%	1.2%	86%
AA 1264 American Flight history →	ORD 05:51	LGA 09:00	9%	2%	1.8%	62%
AA 2723 American Flight history →	ORD 07:00	LGA 10:17	11%	3%	2.1%	79%
UA 669 United Flight history →	ORD 10:03	LGA 13:26	13%	7%	1.5%	82%
AA 2941 American	ORD 08:14	LGA 11:38	14%	3%	2.1%	no record
DL 2917 Delta Flight history →	ORD 10:37	LGA 13:47	15%	5%	1.6%	72%
UA 529 United	ORD 11:10	LGA 14:30	17%	9%	1.2%	no record
AA 3128 American Flight history →	ORD 10:13	LGA 13:34	20%	6%	2.1%	71%
AA 1166 American Flight history →	ORD 20:10	LGA 23:35	25%	7%	1.1%	52%
UA 2827 United	ORD 20:03	LGA 23:17	25%	10%	1.0%	no record
AA 903 American	ORD 11:30	LGA 14:52	26%	7%	1.7%	no record
UA 511 United	ORD 16:14	LGA 19:31	26%	11%	1.2%	no record
UA 1821 United Flight history →	ORD 14:00	LGA 17:22	26%	13%	1.2%	65%
DL 1631 Delta	ORD 14:36	LGA 17:46	27%	8%	1.3%	no record
AA 512 American	ORD 13:45	LGA 17:10	29%	10%	1.6%	no record
UA 2133 United	ORD 15:17	LGA 18:32	29%	11%	1.1%	no record
DL 2226 Delta Flight history →	ORD 17:40	LGA 20:50	29%	9%	1.2%	57%
AA 3163 American Flight history →	ORD 12:47	LGA 16:12	30%	8%	1.7%	68%
AA 866 American	ORD 15:13	LGA 18:38	30%	10%	1.6%	no record
UA 2605 United Flight history →	ORD 18:52	LGA 22:00	31%	12%	1.1%	54%
UA 2458 United Flight history →	ORD 18:13	LGA 21:30	31%	11%	1.0%	46%
AA 774 American Flight history →	ORD 18:08	LGA 21:37	32%	10%	1.3%	58%
AA 673 American Flight history →	ORD 16:40	LGA 20:07	32%	10%	1.6%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON