Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 6349 at 07:07 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–38%.

Safest bet that day AA 6349 ORD 07:07 → MCI 08:49 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest UA 1884 ORD 20:06 → MCI 21:35 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 6349 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 07:07	MCI 08:49	12%	4%	1.2%	95%
YX 3575 Republic	ORD 07:29	MCI 08:54	14%	2%	0.8%	no record
UA 1764 United	ORD 08:56	MCI 10:32	19%	6%	0.6%	no record
MQ 3764 Envoy	ORD 13:52	MCI 15:29	19%	5%	1.8%	no record
YX 4384 Republic	ORD 22:28	MCI 00:08	19%	6%	1.3%	no record
AA 6215 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 10:16	MCI 11:59	19%	6%	1.5%	57%
UA 561 United Flight history →	ORD 12:40	MCI 14:20	22%	8%	0.8%	80%
MQ 3545 Envoy	ORD 12:12	MCI 13:49	23%	5%	1.9%	no record
OO 5712 SkyWest	ORD 18:14	MCI 20:02	27%	10%	2.0%	no record
UA 545 United	ORD 14:07	MCI 15:36	29%	9%	0.7%	no record
UA 664 United Flight history →	ORD 15:52	MCI 17:36	30%	10%	0.7%	68%
OO 6304 SkyWest	ORD 17:19	MCI 19:02	30%	11%	2.2%	no record
UA 1884 United Flight history →	ORD 20:06	MCI 21:35	38%	12%	1.0%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON