Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 15 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 2280 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–42%.

Safest bet that day UA 2280 ORD 07:20 → MCO 11:15 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 3176 ORD 18:45 → MCO 22:40 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2280 United Flight history →	ORD 07:20	MCO 11:15	12%	4%	5.2%	89%
UA 1643 United Flight history →	ORD 09:12	MCO 13:13	18%	5%	14.9%	85%
AA 1564 American	ORD 07:02	MCO 10:51	19%	4%	6.2%	no record
UA 2008 United Flight history →	ORD 11:00	MCO 15:03	20%	7%	1.4%	75%
F9 3044 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 17:13	MCO 21:25	23%	11%	3.7%	73%
UA 2654 United	ORD 14:44	MCO 18:32	26%	8%	1.7%	no record
UA 2620 United	ORD 13:05	MCO 16:49	27%	8%	1.7%	no record
AA 3293 American	ORD 10:32	MCO 14:21	27%	7%	6.2%	no record
UA 1929 United	ORD 15:52	MCO 19:35	29%	9%	1.5%	no record
UA 617 United	ORD 19:55	MCO 23:33	31%	8%	1.1%	no record
UA 3914 United	ORD 20:44	MCO 00:18	32%	8%	1.2%	no record
AA 486 American Flight history →	ORD 12:00	MCO 15:50	35%	9%	2.6%	46%
UA 2294 United	ORD 18:30	MCO 22:03	38%	12%	1.4%	no record
AA 1247 American Flight history →	ORD 15:06	MCO 19:00	40%	10%	2.1%	62%
AA 3176 American Flight history →	ORD 18:45	MCO 22:40	42%	12%	2.2%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON