Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: MQ 4212 at 08:35 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29%.

Safest bet that day MQ 4212 ORD 08:35 → MDT 11:33 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3243 ORD 15:30 → MDT 18:35 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


MQ 4212 Envoy	ORD 08:35	MDT 11:33	13%	2%	1.0%	no record
UA 5581 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 07:14	MDT 09:54	13%	3%	0.9%	77%
YX 3544 Republic	ORD 10:38	MDT 13:41	14%	2%	0.9%	no record
UA 533 United	ORD 14:05	MDT 16:59	27%	8%	0.8%	no record
UA 1719 United	ORD 19:21	MDT 22:08	29%	8%	0.8%	no record
AA 2400 American	ORD 19:02	MDT 22:16	29%	8%	1.2%	no record
AA 3243 American Flight history →	ORD 15:30	MDT 18:35	29%	8%	1.2%	75%
UA 4173 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 16:40	MDT 19:48	26%	15%	2.8%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON