Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: OO 5838 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–31%.

Safest bet that day OO 5838 ORD 06:05 → MKE 07:22 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 5262 ORD 16:50 → MKE 17:54 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 5838 SkyWest	ORD 06:05	MKE 07:22	10%	4%	1.4%	no record
OO 4984 SkyWest	ORD 07:13	MKE 08:15	13%	5%	1.6%	no record
MQ 4018 Envoy	ORD 10:20	MKE 11:20	16%	3%	1.1%	no record
UA 5234 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 10:44	MKE 11:45	19%	7%	1.6%	77%
MQ 4035 Envoy	ORD 13:30	MKE 14:29	22%	5%	1.2%	no record
UA 5821 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 09:39	MKE 10:27	22%	6%	1.8%	73%
UA 4711 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 19:45	MKE 20:56	25%	7%	1.5%	70%
UA 5933 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 13:30	MKE 14:36	25%	9%	1.4%	67%
OO 757 SkyWest	ORD 21:56	MKE 22:44	26%	7%	1.6%	no record
OO 4990 SkyWest	ORD 12:02	MKE 13:02	26%	11%	1.8%	no record
OO 4909 SkyWest	ORD 19:12	MKE 20:17	26%	8%	1.6%	no record
UA 5555 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 17:45	MKE 18:48	28%	10%	1.6%	52%
UA 5668 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 14:25	MKE 15:24	28%	10%	1.3%	66%
MQ 4096 Envoy	ORD 17:33	MKE 18:34	29%	6%	1.7%	no record
AA 6257 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 20:49	MKE 21:37	29%	8%	1.4%	44%
UA 5262 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 16:50	MKE 17:54	31%	10%	1.9%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON