Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 4048 at 07:17 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–37%.

Safest bet that day AA 4048 ORD 07:17 → MSN 08:24 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest UA 630 ORD 20:10 → MSN 20:43 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4048 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 07:17	MSN 08:24	9%	3%	1.0%	85%
AA 4038 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 13:59	MSN 15:05	14%	4%	1.2%	82%
OO 4737 SkyWest	ORD 10:54	MSN 12:10	18%	8%	1.4%	no record
AA 6256 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 11:34	MSN 12:39	19%	9%	1.6%	74%
G7 4382 GoJet	ORD 09:00	MSN 10:06	20%	4%	1.4%	no record
AA 3953 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 17:19	MSN 18:34	21%	7%	1.5%	73%
AA 4045 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 22:55	MSN 23:49	21%	4%	1.4%	69%
UA 1595 United	ORD 14:14	MSN 15:10	24%	10%	0.8%	no record
OO 5530 SkyWest	ORD 16:19	MSN 17:29	26%	11%	1.7%	no record
MQ 4217 Envoy	ORD 21:16	MSN 22:09	26%	5%	1.3%	no record
UA 2349 United	ORD 12:50	MSN 13:44	26%	10%	0.9%	no record
OO 5679 SkyWest	ORD 18:44	MSN 19:43	28%	12%	1.5%	no record
UA 1251 United	ORD 21:21	MSN 22:15	35%	12%	0.7%	no record
UA 630 United Flight history →	ORD 20:10	MSN 20:43	37%	13%	0.7%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON