tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 2847 United ORD 09:01 MSO 11:37 13% 5% 0.6% no record
MQ 3697 Envoy ORD 10:13 MSO 13:06 15% 4% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Missoula on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Missoula is 1 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ORD 06:00 → DEN 07:41UA 2806 3h 50m Denver DEN 11:31 → MSO 13:39UA 2357 8h 39m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → ORD 18:25 → MSP 20:08DL 1306 1h 44m Minneapolis MSP 21:52 → MSO 23:44DL 2610 6h 19m 93% 75%
UnitedDetails → ORD 14:33 → DEN 16:30UA 2803 3h 01m Denver DEN 19:31 → MSO 21:40UA 1092 8h 07m 93% 67%
UnitedDetails → ORD 06:10 → SFO 08:47UA 246 3h 28m San Francisco SFO 12:15 → MSO 15:38UA 5422 · flown by SkyWest 10h 28m 100% 66%
AlaskaDetails → ORD 08:02 → SEA 10:37AS 587 1h 46m Seattle SEA 12:23 → MSO 14:49AS 1451 7h 47m 87% 63%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → ORD 15:43 → SEA 18:22AS 407 1h 12m Seattle SEA 19:34 → MSO 21:56AS 604 7h 13m 73% 50%
AlaskaDetails → ORD 09:03 → SEA 11:33AS 583 50m Seattle SEA 12:23 → MSO 14:49AS 1451 6h 46m 57% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON