Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 19 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 4162 at 06:59 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–39%.

Safest bet that day AA 4162 ORD 06:59 → MSP 08:48 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest UA 2865 ORD 18:50 → MSP 20:08 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4162 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 06:59	MSP 08:48	8%	2%	0.9%	91%
DL 2028 Delta	ORD 06:15	MSP 07:48	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 2805 United Flight history →	ORD 08:50	MSP 10:36	11%	4%	0.6%	89%
UA 2232 United Flight history →	ORD 07:15	MSP 08:49	11%	3%	0.6%	89%
MQ 3551 Envoy	ORD 08:35	MSP 10:24	12%	3%	0.8%	no record
DL 724 Delta	ORD 08:29	MSP 10:05	15%	3%	0.7%	no record
MQ 4228 Envoy	ORD 15:14	MSP 17:03	17%	5%	1.0%	no record
UA 215 United Flight history →	ORD 10:46	MSP 12:21	17%	5%	0.6%	79%
DL 1533 Delta Flight history →	ORD 15:55	MSP 17:40	20%	6%	0.7%	62%
DL 1567 Delta Flight history →	ORD 12:46	MSP 14:29	20%	6%	0.7%	67%
AA 2448 American	ORD 11:49	MSP 13:55	22%	7%	0.6%	no record
DL 1306 Delta Flight history →	ORD 18:25	MSP 20:08	22%	8%	0.7%	51%
UA 2005 United Flight history →	ORD 19:57	MSP 21:41	24%	8%	0.6%	58%
UA 467 United Flight history →	ORD 12:53	MSP 14:30	25%	7%	0.6%	70%
UA 2298 United Flight history →	ORD 14:07	MSP 15:33	27%	7%	0.6%	74%
AA 2472 American	ORD 15:57	MSP 17:53	28%	9%	0.7%	no record
AA 1048 American	ORD 22:26	MSP 23:57	32%	8%	0.7%	no record
UA 1935 United Flight history →	ORD 16:42	MSP 18:06	34%	8%	0.6%	70%
UA 2865 United Flight history →	ORD 18:50	MSP 20:08	39%	9%	0.6%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON