Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 2778 at 07:21 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–32%.

Safest bet that day UA 2778 ORD 07:21 → MSY 09:41 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3256 ORD 21:06 → MSY 23:34 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2778 United	ORD 07:21	MSY 09:41	12%	4%	0.7%	no record
YX 4468 Republic	ORD 08:33	MSY 11:06	13%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 1532 United	ORD 10:56	MSY 13:23	21%	6%	0.6%	no record
OO 5689 SkyWest	ORD 14:21	MSY 16:58	22%	9%	0.8%	no record
UA 1761 United Flight history →	ORD 20:11	MSY 22:46	28%	9%	0.6%	63%
AA 3256 American	ORD 21:06	MSY 23:34	32%	8%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON