Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, YX 3526 at 12:06, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


YX 3526 Republic	ORD 12:06	MYR 14:59	21%	5%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Myrtle Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Myrtle Beach is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	ORD 05:07 → CLT 08:10AA 2842	3h 10m Charlotte	CLT 11:20 → MYR 12:36AA 5883 · flown by Piedmont	6h 29m	98%	91%
United Details →	ORD 06:00 → DEN 07:41UA 2806	1h 56m Denver	DEN 09:37 → MYR 14:56UA 454	7h 56m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	ORD 07:00 → ATL 10:06DL 1247	3h 48m Atlanta	ATL 13:54 → MYR 15:14DL 3182	7h 14m	99%	83%
American Details →	ORD 05:00 → PHL 08:05AA 2970	2h 48m Philadelphia	PHL 10:53 → MYR 13:02AA 6120 · flown by Piedmont	7h 02m	96%	79%
Delta Details →	ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29DL 1264	1h 03m Atlanta	ATL 09:32 → MYR 10:49DL 3047	4h 19m	92%	77%
Delta Details →	ORD 06:59 → BOS 10:30DL 2828	1h 05m Boston	BOS 11:35 → MYR 13:53DL 3087	5h 54m	94%	77%
Delta Details →	ORD 13:39 → ATL 16:49DL 2894	3h 41m Atlanta	ATL 20:30 → MYR 21:49DL 3074	7h 10m	98%	74%
American Details →	ORD 09:03 → CLT 12:07AA 2080	3h 51m Charlotte	CLT 15:58 → MYR 17:06AA 2943	7h 03m	98%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON