tailodds FORECAST
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Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: MQ 4037 at 09:59 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–32%.

Safest bet that day MQ 4037 ORD 09:59 → OKC 12:14 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 6481 ORD 16:35 → OKC 18:51 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
MQ 4037 Envoy ORD 09:59 OKC 12:14 15% 4% 1.4% no record
OO 414 SkyWest ORD 09:50 OKC 12:10 19% 7% 1.1% no record
OO 5363 SkyWest ORD 15:58 OKC 18:19 26% 12% 1.6% no record
OO 435 SkyWest ORD 14:06 OKC 16:24 27% 12% 1.8% no record
AA 6337 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → ORD 12:11 OKC 14:27 28% 11% 1.5% 64%
UA 1440 United ORD 20:29 OKC 22:36 31% 15% 1.3% no record
AA 6493 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → ORD 18:17 OKC 20:35 32% 15% 2.6% 60%
AA 6481 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → ORD 16:35 OKC 18:51 32% 15% 9.1% 62%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON