Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 4042 at 08:18 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–34%.

Safest bet that day AA 4042 ORD 08:18 → OMA 10:01 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time Riskiest AA 3334 ORD 22:32 → OMA 00:06 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 32% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4042 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 08:18	OMA 10:01	9%	2%	0.8%	74%
UA 1778 United Flight history →	ORD 08:40	OMA 10:27	10%	4%	0.6%	87%
MQ 3558 Envoy	ORD 10:15	OMA 11:58	11%	3%	0.9%	no record
OO 5744 SkyWest	ORD 10:44	OMA 12:30	15%	6%	0.8%	no record
MQ 3712 Envoy	ORD 17:43	OMA 19:26	17%	5%	1.0%	no record
OO 5638 SkyWest	ORD 18:04	OMA 19:48	21%	9%	0.8%	no record
OO 5354 SkyWest	ORD 16:12	OMA 17:55	22%	9%	1.0%	no record
UA 247 United Flight history →	ORD 12:49	OMA 14:23	23%	8%	0.7%	78%
UA 2336 United	ORD 21:11	OMA 22:42	29%	8%	0.6%	no record
AA 3334 American Flight history →	ORD 22:32	OMA 00:06	34%	7%	0.7%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON