tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:45, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Ontario on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 56% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 658 United Flight history → ORD 20:18 ONT 22:51 31% 10% 0.6% 60%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 2 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ORD 06:00 → DEN 07:41UA 2806 3h 44m Denver DEN 11:25 → ONT 12:47UA 430 8h 47m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → ORD 07:45 → SLC 10:15DL 2231 1h 09m Salt Lake City SLC 11:24 → ONT 12:22DL 1173 6h 37m 89% 81%
UnitedDetails → ORD 14:46 → SFO 17:26UA 1577 3h 47m San Francisco SFO 21:13 → ONT 22:41UA 552 9h 55m 95% 76%
DeltaDetails → ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29DL 1264 52m Atlanta ATL 09:21 → ONT 10:38DL 665 7h 08m 89% 75%
AmericanDetails → ORD 07:25 → PHX 09:09AA 769 1h 37m Phoenix PHX 10:46 → ONT 12:12AA 2661 6h 47m 90% 74%
UnitedDetails → ORD 14:24 → IAH 17:16UA 2062 3h 15m Houston IAH 20:31 → ONT 21:55UA 1563 9h 31m 95% 73%
DeltaDetails → ORD 11:16 → ATL 14:21DL 1147 2h 44m Atlanta ATL 17:05 → ONT 18:30DL 2891 9h 14m 97% 73%
UnitedDetails → ORD 10:25 → SFO 13:14UA 543 3h 08m San Francisco SFO 16:22 → ONT 17:51UA 393 9h 26m 94% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → ORD 13:47 → PHX 15:43AA 1640 1h 17m Phoenix PHX 17:00 → ONT 18:26AA 1666 6h 39m 70% 52%
UnitedDetails → ORD 12:50 → SFO 15:29UA 1097 53m San Francisco SFO 16:22 → ONT 17:51UA 393 7h 01m 56% 43%
AmericanDetails → ORD 17:18 → DFW 19:56AA 2499 1h 21m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:17 → ONT 22:29AA 1695 7h 11m 70% 34%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON