Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: YX 4448 at 08:23 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–21%.

Safest bet that day YX 4448 ORD 08:23 → ORF 11:54 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 4164 ORD 14:30 → ORF 17:54 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4448 Republic	ORD 08:23	ORF 11:54	8%	2%	0.8%	no record
YX 3664 Republic	ORD 08:56	ORF 12:29	10%	2%	0.8%	no record
YX 4519 Republic	ORD 20:31	ORF 23:56	18%	4%	0.8%	no record
UA 2807 United Flight history →	ORD 12:07	ORF 15:24	19%	7%	0.8%	83%
YX 3607 Republic	ORD 18:31	ORF 21:53	21%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 4164 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 14:30	ORF 17:54	22%	4%	1.4%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON