Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 17 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 2989 at 05:02 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–36%.

Safest bet that day AA 2989 ORD 05:02 → PHX 06:52 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3137 ORD 17:02 → PHX 18:45 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2989 American	ORD 05:02	PHX 06:52	11%	3%	1.0%	no record
UA 2795 United	ORD 07:14	PHX 09:00	17%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 2225 United Flight history →	ORD 10:18	PHX 12:09	17%	6%	0.6%	95%worse than usual
UA 2164 United Flight history →	ORD 11:10	PHX 13:02	18%	7%	0.6%	87%
AA 769 American Flight history →	ORD 07:25	PHX 09:09	21%	4%	1.0%	86%
AA 2786 American Flight history →	ORD 00:11	PHX 01:49	23%	5%	1.3%	55%
UA 1706 United	ORD 14:06	PHX 15:49	24%	8%	0.6%	no record
AA 2192 American	ORD 10:35	PHX 12:28	25%	6%	0.9%	no record
UA 2015 United	ORD 15:57	PHX 17:40	26%	10%	0.6%	no record
UA 602 United Flight history →	ORD 20:30	PHX 22:27	28%	9%	0.6%	70%
UA 2053 United Flight history →	ORD 17:14	PHX 18:57	29%	11%	0.6%	79%
AA 1640 American Flight history →	ORD 13:47	PHX 15:43	30%	7%	0.9%	81%worse than usual
AA 2554 American Flight history →	ORD 19:07	PHX 21:06	32%	7%	0.9%	79%worse than usual
AA 2624 American Flight history →	ORD 15:22	PHX 17:05	33%	8%	0.9%	70%
AA 1767 American	ORD 18:08	PHX 20:10	33%	8%	0.9%	no record
AA 3277 American	ORD 20:51	PHX 22:48	34%	8%	1.1%	no record
AA 3137 American Flight history →	ORD 17:02	PHX 18:45	36%	10%	0.8%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON