Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: YX 3656 at 05:59 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–33%.

Safest bet that day YX 3656 ORD 05:59 → PIT 08:32 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1051 ORD 18:52 → PIT 21:39 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 3656 Republic	ORD 05:59	PIT 08:32	5%	2%	0.8%	no record
AA 4478 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 08:22	PIT 11:11	7%	2%	0.8%	92%
UA 1285 United Flight history →	ORD 07:10	PIT 09:53	8%	3%	0.6%	88%
AA 4467 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 09:54	PIT 12:42	9%	2%	0.8%	82%
YX 3480 Republic	ORD 12:58	PIT 15:38	13%	4%	0.9%	no record
UA 3464 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 21:20	PIT 23:59	13%	3%	0.8%	80%
AA 4527 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 20:32	PIT 23:10	13%	3%	0.7%	73%
UA 2752 United	ORD 10:42	PIT 13:11	16%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 1349 United Flight history →	ORD 14:25	PIT 17:10	18%	8%	0.6%	72%
AA 2675 American	ORD 12:39	PIT 15:22	24%	9%	1.0%	no record
UA 1946 United Flight history →	ORD 18:05	PIT 20:51	26%	10%	0.6%	64%
OO 5657 SkyWest	ORD 16:47	PIT 19:19	29%	10%	0.9%	no record
AA 2671 American	ORD 17:21	PIT 20:05	31%	12%	0.9%	no record
AA 1051 American	ORD 18:52	PIT 21:39	33%	11%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON