tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, UA 2492 at 10:57, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2492 United ORD 10:57 PNS 13:19 19% 6% 2.2% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pensacola on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ORD 06:00 → DEN 07:41UA 2806 3h 43m Denver DEN 11:24 → PNS 15:19UA 1891 9h 19m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → ORD 07:00 → ATL 10:06DL 1247 2h 39m Atlanta ATL 12:45 → PNS 12:55DL 1640 5h 55m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29DL 1264 2h 05m Atlanta ATL 10:34 → PNS 10:46DL 3198 5h 16m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → ORD 15:35 → ATL 18:48DL 1477 2h 49m Atlanta ATL 21:37 → PNS 21:59DL 3086 6h 24m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → ORD 11:16 → ATL 14:21DL 1147 2h 34m Atlanta ATL 16:55 → PNS 17:10DL 2211 5h 54m 96% 80%
FrontierDetails → ORD 06:37 → DEN 08:23F9 1483 3h 07m Denver DEN 11:30 → PNS 15:36F9 3930 8h 59m 96% 80%
DeltaDetails → ORD 13:39 → ATL 16:49DL 2894 3h 49m Atlanta ATL 20:38 → PNS 20:51DL 3021 7h 12m 98% 78%
AmericanDetails → ORD 05:00 → DFW 07:30AA 760 1h 43m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:13 → PNS 11:09AA 3982 · flown by Envoy 6h 09m 96% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → ORD 14:55 → DCA 17:59AA 2769 1h 01m Washington DCA 19:00 → PNS 20:39AA 5544 · flown by PSA 5h 44m 74% 59%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON