Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: OO 5232 at 07:11 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–28%.

Safest bet that day OO 5232 ORD 07:11 → PWM 10:57 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1401 ORD 18:08 → PWM 21:41 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 5232 SkyWest	ORD 07:11	PWM 10:57	11%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 4741 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 13:18	PWM 17:04	16%	3%	0.9%	92%
AA 4504 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 20:07	PWM 23:57	17%	4%	0.9%	69%
UA 2804 United Flight history →	ORD 11:00	PWM 14:31	18%	5%	0.7%	86%
YX 3662 Republic	ORD 15:17	PWM 18:57	19%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 2717 American	ORD 09:31	PWM 13:15	23%	5%	1.0%	no record
UA 1401 United Flight history →	ORD 18:08	PWM 21:41	28%	11%	0.7%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON