Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: MQ 3573 at 09:54 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–29%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3573 ORD 09:54 → RAP 11:25 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 4997 ORD 16:17 → RAP 17:51 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3573 Envoy	ORD 09:54	RAP 11:25	12%	3%	0.8%	no record
UA 2050 United	ORD 08:58	RAP 10:20	15%	6%	0.7%	no record
OO 4997 SkyWest	ORD 16:17	RAP 17:51	29%	12%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON