Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 4354 at 08:20 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–36%.

Safest bet that day AA 4354 ORD 08:20 → RDU 11:38 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 600 ORD 20:46 → RDU 23:46 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4354 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 08:20	RDU 11:38	9%	2%	1.0%	90%
UA 2616 United Flight history →	ORD 10:48	RDU 14:01	14%	6%	0.7%	84%
YX 3600 Republic	ORD 09:24	RDU 12:10	14%	3%	1.0%	no record
OO 5764 SkyWest	ORD 07:45	RDU 11:02	15%	5%	0.9%	no record
AA 4503 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 16:15	RDU 19:35	20%	7%	1.2%	65%
OO 5361 SkyWest	ORD 13:03	RDU 16:16	21%	7%	0.9%	no record
AA 2732 American	ORD 11:02	RDU 14:13	24%	7%	1.5%	no record
UA 2091 United Flight history →	ORD 15:52	RDU 18:54	26%	8%	0.8%	79%
UA 1989 United Flight history →	ORD 18:25	RDU 21:37	28%	9%	0.6%	53%
AA 2949 American Flight history →	ORD 14:42	RDU 17:53	34%	9%	1.2%	74%
AA 2167 American Flight history →	ORD 18:42	RDU 21:59	36%	11%	1.0%	58%
AA 600 American Flight history →	ORD 20:46	RDU 23:46	36%	10%	0.9%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON