tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:45, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Reno on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1993 United ORD 11:02 RNO 13:23 29% 7% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Reno on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Reno is 2 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ORD 06:00 → DEN 07:41UA 2806 3h 39m Denver DEN 11:20 → RNO 12:39UA 2167 8h 39m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → ORD 07:45 → SLC 10:15DL 2231 1h 25m Salt Lake City SLC 11:40 → RNO 12:09DL 1595 6h 24m 90% 80%
UnitedDetails → ORD 06:00 → LAX 08:27UA 2373 2h 04m Los Angeles LAX 10:31 → RNO 12:07UA 482 8h 07m 95% 76%
DeltaDetails → ORD 09:28 → LAX 11:42DL 1556 1h 16m Los Angeles LAX 12:58 → RNO 14:25DL 3902 · flown by SkyWest 6h 57m 90% 76%
AlaskaDetails → ORD 14:19 → PDX 16:54AS 325 1h 12m Portland PDX 18:06 → RNO 19:36AS 485 7h 17m 86% 73%
AmericanDetails → ORD 05:00 → DFW 07:30AA 760 1h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:50 → RNO 10:11AA 1911 7h 11m 96% 72%
UnitedDetails → ORD 14:33 → DEN 16:30UA 2803 2h 55m Denver DEN 19:25 → RNO 20:50UA 719 8h 17m 92% 71%
UnitedDetails → ORD 10:25 → SFO 13:14UA 543 3h 33m San Francisco SFO 16:47 → RNO 17:56UA 2690 9h 31m 96% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → ORD 18:20 → SFO 21:18UA 2179 1h 10m San Francisco SFO 22:28 → RNO 23:33UA 1757 7h 13m 69% 51%
AmericanDetails → ORD 08:30 → DFW 11:04AA 1555 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:55 → RNO 13:17AA 324 6h 47m 69% 46%
AmericanDetails → ORD 15:22 → PHX 17:05AA 2624 55m Phoenix PHX 18:00 → RNO 20:03AA 2869 6h 41m 64% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON