Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 4104 at 08:19 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–29%.

Safest bet that day AA 4104 ORD 08:19 → ROC 11:11 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest UA 1568 ORD 18:29 → ROC 21:27 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4104 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 08:19	ROC 11:11	10%	2%	0.8%	81%
UA 5919 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 06:45	ROC 09:35	11%	5%	1.0%	83%
YX 4572 Republic	ORD 20:52	ROC 23:41	16%	3%	0.7%	no record
OO 6316 SkyWest	ORD 17:12	ROC 20:09	26%	10%	1.3%	no record
UA 1239 United Flight history →	ORD 14:00	ROC 16:42	26%	8%	0.6%	71%
UA 1568 United Flight history →	ORD 18:29	ROC 21:27	29%	9%	0.6%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON