Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 1740 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–31%.

Safest bet that day UA 1740 ORD 07:05 → RSW 11:14 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 3238 ORD 19:29 → RSW 23:29 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1740 United Flight history →	ORD 07:05	RSW 11:14	10%	3%	3.9%	93%
UA 1036 United Flight history →	ORD 09:20	RSW 13:15	15%	5%	1.5%	82%
AA 2437 American Flight history →	ORD 06:50	RSW 11:02	15%	4%	4.8%	47%
UA 2137 United	ORD 11:03	RSW 14:55	18%	6%	1.6%	no record
UA 2618 United Flight history →	ORD 16:26	RSW 20:34	23%	10%	1.5%	71%
AA 2561 American Flight history →	ORD 12:13	RSW 16:18	27%	9%	2.6%	75%
AA 3238 American Flight history →	ORD 19:29	RSW 23:29	31%	12%	2.0%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON