Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 660 at 08:46 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–32%.

Safest bet that day UA 660 ORD 08:46 → SAN 11:21 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest AA 1543 ORD 15:10 → SAN 17:37 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 660 United Flight history →	ORD 08:46	SAN 11:21	17%	4%	0.6%	84%
AS 1470 Alaska Flight history →	ORD 06:20	SAN 08:54	17%	2%	1.0%	75%
AA 2343 American Flight history →	ORD 06:48	SAN 09:22	18%	3%	0.7%	84%
UA 559 United	ORD 13:40	SAN 15:57	23%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 2138 United	ORD 16:24	SAN 18:48	25%	8%	0.7%	no record
AA 2131 American Flight history →	ORD 09:54	SAN 12:23	27%	6%	0.8%	74%
AS 1447 Alaska Flight history →	ORD 14:45	SAN 16:57	30%	5%	0.9%	70%
UA 1564 United	ORD 20:07	SAN 22:15	31%	8%	0.6%	no record
AA 2994 American	ORD 20:45	SAN 23:23	32%	8%	0.8%	no record
AA 1861 American Flight history →	ORD 19:00	SAN 21:39	32%	9%	0.8%	70%
AA 1543 American Flight history →	ORD 15:10	SAN 17:37	34%	8%	0.8%	68%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	ORD 05:00 → DEN 06:42UA 2666	58m Denver	DEN 07:40 → SAN 09:02UA 2309	6h 02m	93%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON