Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 694 at 07:39 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–24%.

Safest bet that day UA 694 ORD 07:39 → SAV 11:02 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1191 ORD 17:14 → SAV 20:31 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 694 United	ORD 07:39	SAV 11:02	11%	5%	0.8%	no record
MQ 4054 Envoy	ORD 08:14	SAV 11:36	15%	3%	0.9%	no record
UA 1612 United Flight history →	ORD 11:10	SAV 14:21	18%	6%	0.8%	94%worse than usual
UA 3496 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 18:20	SAV 21:56	20%	7%	1.3%	71%
UA 1191 United	ORD 17:14	SAV 20:31	24%	10%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON