tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: American via Phoenix, leaving 07:25, is the safest bet: 59% chance of reaching Santa Barbara on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 49% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1008 United Flight history → ORD 10:17 SBA 12:49 22% 7% 0.9% 75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Barbara on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Barbara is 2 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ORD 06:00 → DEN 07:41UA 2806 3h 45m Denver DEN 11:26 → SBA 13:02UA 671 9h 02m 100% 80%
UnitedDetails → ORD 06:10 → SFO 08:47UA 246 1h 42m San Francisco SFO 10:29 → SBA 11:52UA 1578 7h 42m 97% 74%
AmericanDetails → ORD 05:00 → DFW 07:30AA 760 2h 41m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:11 → SBA 11:45AA 1822 8h 45m 99% 73%
UnitedDetails → ORD 14:33 → DEN 16:30UA 2803 2h 53m Denver DEN 19:23 → SBA 20:59UA 2479 8h 26m 92% 70%
UnitedDetails → ORD 07:30 → SFO 10:19UA 1116 3h 31m San Francisco SFO 13:50 → SBA 15:17UA 5464 · flown by SkyWest 9h 47m 99% 68%
AlaskaDetails → ORD 09:03 → SEA 11:33AS 583 3h 55m Seattle SEA 15:28 → SBA 17:53AS 468 10h 50m 100% 67%
UnitedDetails → ORD 10:25 → SFO 13:14UA 543 3h 03m San Francisco SFO 16:17 → SBA 17:37UA 639 9h 12m 94% 67%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → ORD 07:25 → PHX 09:09AA 769 54m Phoenix PHX 10:03 → SBA 11:56AA 2928 6h 31m 71% 59%
AmericanDetails → ORD 13:47 → PHX 15:43AA 1640 1h 34m Phoenix PHX 17:17 → SBA 19:08AA 1855 7h 21m 69% 55%
UnitedDetails → ORD 12:50 → SFO 15:29UA 1097 48m San Francisco SFO 16:17 → SBA 17:37UA 639 6h 47m 49% 35%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON