Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: YX 3672 at 06:56 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–19%.

Safest bet that day YX 3672 ORD 06:56 → SDF 09:38 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 4940 ORD 15:12 → SDF 17:41 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 3672 Republic	ORD 06:56	SDF 09:38	5%	2%	0.8%	no record
MQ 3582 Envoy	ORD 07:23	SDF 09:51	8%	2%	0.9%	no record
MQ 3580 Envoy	ORD 11:29	SDF 13:51	14%	4%	0.9%	no record
AA 4603 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 19:29	SDF 22:04	18%	5%	0.9%	75%
UA 3598 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 17:50	SDF 20:23	18%	6%	0.9%	77%
YX 3605 Republic	ORD 16:43	SDF 19:20	18%	6%	1.1%	no record
UA 3659 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 21:25	SDF 23:59	19%	5%	0.9%	73%
OO 5692 SkyWest	ORD 10:57	SDF 13:16	19%	7%	1.0%	no record
OO 4940 SkyWest	ORD 15:12	SDF 17:41	26%	10%	1.0%	no record
UA 4519 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 16:25	SDF 18:56	34%	11%	5.4%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON