Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 16 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 2041 at 06:55 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–42%.

Safest bet that day DL 2041 ORD 06:55 → SEA 09:27 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time Riskiest AA 2392 ORD 18:42 → SEA 21:38 · 42% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2041 Delta Flight history →	ORD 06:55	SEA 09:27	13%	3%	0.7%	74%
UA 341 United Flight history →	ORD 06:59	SEA 09:39	14%	3%	0.7%	89%
UA 2099 United Flight history →	ORD 08:45	SEA 11:38	23%	4%	0.7%	83%
UA 1660 United Flight history →	ORD 13:30	SEA 16:09	26%	7%	0.7%	87%worse than usual
AA 2966 American	ORD 10:02	SEA 12:52	28%	5%	0.9%	no record
DL 1564 Delta Flight history →	ORD 13:00	SEA 15:44	28%	6%	0.7%	65%
AA 3105 American Flight history →	ORD 07:19	SEA 10:11	29%	4%	1.0%	44%
AA 1476 American	ORD 12:01	SEA 14:53	31%	8%	1.1%	no record
DL 1205 Delta	ORD 17:41	SEA 20:13	32%	9%	0.7%	no record
UA 1801 United Flight history →	ORD 16:20	SEA 19:06	33%	10%	0.8%	73%
AA 3231 American	ORD 21:26	SEA 00:13	35%	9%	1.0%	no record
AS 407 Alaska Flight history →	ORD 15:43	SEA 18:22	37%	7%	1.3%	68%
AS 587 Alaska Flight history →	ORD 08:02	SEA 10:37	39%	5%	1.1%	64%
UA 2211 United Flight history →	ORD 20:01	SEA 22:26	39%	10%	0.6%	59%
AS 583 Alaska Flight history →	ORD 09:03	SEA 11:33	39%	4%	1.0%	41%
AA 2392 American	ORD 18:42	SEA 21:38	42%	11%	1.0%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	ORD 12:46 → MSP 14:29DL 1567	46m Minneapolis	MSP 15:15 → SEA 17:00DL 877	6h 14m	77%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON