Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 20 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 246 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–41%.

Safest bet that day UA 246 ORD 06:10 → SFO 08:47 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 1253 ORD 15:18 → SFO 17:58 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 246 United Flight history →	ORD 06:10	SFO 08:47	13%	3%	0.6%	93%
UA 1116 United Flight history →	ORD 07:30	SFO 10:19	17%	5%	0.6%	87%
AA 2885 American	ORD 06:47	SFO 09:40	18%	6%	0.8%	no record
UA 543 United Flight history →	ORD 10:25	SFO 13:14	25%	10%	0.6%	63%
UA 342 United	ORD 08:51	SFO 11:28	26%	9%	0.6%	no record
AA 1851 American	ORD 09:47	SFO 12:45	26%	8%	0.8%	no record
AA 3115 American Flight history →	ORD 08:39	SFO 11:35	27%	7%	0.8%	93%worse than usual
UA 2106 United Flight history →	ORD 21:35	SFO 00:32	32%	10%	0.6%	78%
UA 1097 United Flight history →	ORD 12:50	SFO 15:29	34%	11%	0.7%	79%worse than usual
UA 1577 United Flight history →	ORD 14:46	SFO 17:26	34%	12%	0.6%	74%
UA 1334 United Flight history →	ORD 15:26	SFO 18:18	36%	12%	0.6%	66%
UA 2437 United	ORD 16:19	SFO 19:00	36%	13%	0.6%	no record
AA 3141 American Flight history →	ORD 17:13	SFO 20:10	38%	13%	0.8%	57%
UA 1495 United Flight history →	ORD 20:04	SFO 22:57	38%	11%	0.6%	45%
AA 2817 American	ORD 13:29	SFO 16:24	38%	12%	0.8%	no record
UA 2179 United Flight history →	ORD 18:20	SFO 21:18	39%	13%	0.6%	48%
AA 2856 American	ORD 19:02	SFO 22:00	40%	11%	0.8%	no record
UA 649 United	ORD 18:48	SFO 21:20	41%	12%	0.6%	no record
AA 3202 American	ORD 21:28	SFO 00:09	41%	10%	0.8%	no record
AA 1253 American Flight history →	ORD 15:18	SFO 17:58	44%	13%	0.8%	70%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	ORD 05:00 → DEN 06:42UA 2666	58m Denver	DEN 07:40 → SFO 09:18UA 2391	6h 18m	93%	74%
United Details →	ORD 06:59 → DEN 08:49UA 1217	54m Denver	DEN 09:43 → SFO 11:25UA 1506	6h 26m	90%	63%
Delta Details →	ORD 07:45 → SLC 10:15DL 2231	50m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:05 → SFO 12:07DL 902	6h 22m	77%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON