Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: MQ 3584 at 08:29 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–32%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3584 ORD 08:29 → SGF 10:16 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 4739 ORD 16:36 → SGF 18:14 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


MQ 3584 Envoy	ORD 08:29	SGF 10:16	12%	3%	1.3%	no record
OO 5525 SkyWest	ORD 09:07	SGF 11:00	16%	7%	1.4%	no record
MQ 3544 Envoy	ORD 13:38	SGF 15:15	18%	5%	1.1%	no record
AA 3626 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 17:29	SGF 19:17	22%	8%	1.2%	72%
MQ 3596 Envoy	ORD 20:43	SGF 22:16	22%	6%	1.2%	no record
OO 5664 SkyWest	ORD 13:02	SGF 14:45	23%	10%	1.2%	no record
OO 4747 SkyWest	ORD 21:21	SGF 22:58	26%	9%	1.4%	no record
OO 4739 SkyWest	ORD 16:36	SGF 18:14	32%	13%	1.3%	no record
UA 4451 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 21:30	SGF 23:27	13%	7%	11.5%	87%
UA 4529 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 08:50	SGF 10:44	26%	14%	0.7%	74%
UA 4436 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 12:45	SGF 14:32	28%	13%	2.8%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON