Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via LAX, leaving 09:28, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching San Jose on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 53% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 307 United	ORD 09:32	SJC 12:08	18%	4%	0.8%	no record
UA 481 United Flight history →	ORD 19:58	SJC 22:43	28%	9%	0.7%	67%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 2 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ORD 06:00 → DEN 07:41UA 2806	3h 52m Denver	DEN 11:33 → SJC 13:17UA 1256	9h 17m	100%	84%
American Details →	ORD 07:25 → PHX 09:09AA 769	2h 00m Phoenix	PHX 11:09 → SJC 13:15AA 3940 · flown by Envoy	7h 50m	93%	83%
Delta Details →	ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29DL 1264	1h 14m Atlanta	ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809	8h 00m	94%	80%
Delta Details →	ORD 09:28 → LAX 11:42DL 1556	1h 15m Los Angeles	LAX 12:57 → SJC 14:12DL 3842 · flown by SkyWest	6h 44m	90%	80%
Delta Details →	ORD 13:00 → SEA 15:44DL 1564	2h 06m Seattle	SEA 17:50 → SJC 20:14DL 4100 · flown by SkyWest	9h 14m	95%	79%
Delta Details →	ORD 07:45 → SLC 10:15DL 2231	1h 25m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:40 → SJC 12:35DL 1254	6h 50m	90%	78%
Delta Details →	ORD 13:39 → ATL 16:49DL 2894	3h 01m Atlanta	ATL 19:50 → SJC 21:41DL 933	10h 02m	98%	77%
American Details →	ORD 05:00 → DFW 07:30AA 760	1h 46m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:16 → SJC 11:04AA 2046	8h 04m	96%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	ORD 14:19 → PDX 16:54AS 325	46m Portland	PDX 17:40 → SJC 19:32AS 2113 · flown by Horizon	7h 13m	56%	46%
American Details →	ORD 15:50 → DFW 18:27AA 2531	1h 39m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:06 → SJC 21:56AA 364	8h 06m	72%	45%
American Details →	ORD 13:47 → PHX 15:43AA 1640	51m Phoenix	PHX 16:34 → SJC 18:40AA 2094	6h 53m	53%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON